Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 192.743933 228.685525 271.464506 326.711237 397.014051 484.650910 6.040268e+02
2025-10-05 156.727047 202.478388 263.391053 352.609023 483.841718 676.458323 9.942050e+02
2025-10-12 134.790269 184.936547 257.334445 373.972069 566.518959 890.957167 1.528077e+03
2025-10-19 118.794367 170.717276 250.593203 389.622890 642.667092 1124.773245 2.242586e+03
2025-10-26 105.845282 157.876258 242.169296 398.719928 708.877803 1369.630773 3.169593e+03
2025-11-02 94.756712 145.714051 231.888134 401.001816 761.899193 1613.277178 4.325841e+03
2025-11-09 84.302916 132.806653 217.695237 391.948432 787.693871 1807.730870 5.562311e+03
2025-11-16 75.724884 121.813370 204.928589 382.493382 809.220877 2004.473627 7.082143e+03
2025-11-23 68.479876 112.177663 193.075599 372.146156 825.139672 2196.562542 8.909723e+03
2025-11-30 66.622164 111.999996 199.240128 402.651015 958.393848 2857.696609 1.464989e+04
2025-12-07 62.432474 106.899427 194.723595 407.378530 1022.700911 3333.251750 2.087217e+04
2025-12-14 59.357820 103.549300 193.274069 419.242054 1114.285016 4010.481043 3.200773e+04
2025-12-21 55.219112 97.807256 186.261587 416.449309 1162.287390 4569.608642 4.618495e+04
2025-12-28 54.244049 98.319224 193.086107 452.552071 1365.800874 6229.064722 9.860584e+04
2026-01-04 52.777299 97.619775 197.046305 482.079902 1565.881724 8281.708761 2.228978e+05
2026-01-11 50.910888 95.836819 198.160344 503.737319 1750.669352 10696.914913 5.393512e+05
2026-01-18 48.711845 93.074388 196.460427 516.352199 1906.328034 13349.175010 1.408403e+06
2026-01-25 46.258124 89.483694 192.164346 519.520287 2021.143055 16023.844125 4.001551e+06
2026-02-01 43.338230 84.560146 183.801799 506.963870 2048.372623 17831.209084 1.029866e+07
2026-02-08 40.669075 79.976917 175.776723 493.878156 2067.561191 19706.900737 3.335141e+07
2026-02-15 38.196364 75.637547 167.886205 479.590840 2073.516273 21519.791129 1.540407e+08
2026-02-22 38.054786 76.732811 174.785117 521.810587 2463.251228 32709.790676 NaN
2026-03-01 36.614101 74.595269 172.473739 528.380096 2629.814859 40969.090679 NaN